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The long and winding road

Now we are embarking on our second consecutive season in the First Division ,we supporters need to get a firm grip on reality. At the start of last season most of us, nay all of us, would have been happy with a 20^th place finish, and a further opportunity to consolidate at this level. However, even by November it was fairly apparent that we were going to survive comfortably at this level, until the end of January that is. Fortunately the U.S. cavalry arrived in the shape of Gareth Taylor and we resumed where we left off before we met the Rovers. So the season broke down into three parts, two spells where we produced play off standards and one where we produced not just relegation form, but a rock bottom run.

During these dips and poor spells, when everyone is panicking, Stan has a knack of pulling off a stupendous loan signing: Paul Cook in 1999, Ian Wright in 2000 and Taylor in 2001. The side re-groups and then finishes with a scorching hot run. It's also true that, with the Clarets' somewhat rugged style, the suspensions tend to kick in around December and January. Another factor last season was the disposal in the autumn of three forward players in the shape of Gray, Cooke and Lee for various reasons, leaving the forward line somewhat threadbare on occasions. Now we have at least three forwards firmly under contract, with possibly more on the way, we should be more stable in this department.

Another plus is the gradual pruning and weeding out of what Stan considers to be the weaker members of the squad, as Firmo graphically pointed out in the last mag. This season we are likelier to be a more compact, and increasingly versatile squad, thanks to Stan's penchant for 'multi-skilling', an essential attribute if the Clarets are to survive on a narrow budget. Stan has also had a good look at who can do what at this level and has continued to extract improvement from several existing squad members, and not just the younger members. For Davis and Cox, this must go down as their best season ever, and for Mitch, despite the occasional lapse, it must mark one of his best seasons recently, to be consistently selected and perform decently for the most part, and so on through the rest of the squad.

So without tempting fate it looks as if Barry, Stan and the lads have achieved objective number one, survival. Objective number two, consolidation, also appears to have also been met, and now it's time to look at thrusting onwards and upwards, which means building a side good enough to take the next step, which is, remarkably, Premiership status.

This is where I feel we need some context. There are a sizeable number of supporters who think that all Stan has to do is get his cheque book out and buy a team. This overlooks the fact that Stan has made huge strides over other sides like Forest, Sheffield Wednesday, and, more pertinently, Wolves and possibly Birmingham, who have tried this approach. Note Forest's disastrous investment of £3m in Stan's former prodigy David Johnson, who scored two goals last year. No, at Burnley we will have to build slowly, methodically and marshal the resources we have got stringently, and there can be few more adept than Stan at the Bosman shuffle. Recent arrival MacGregor follows a long line of snips, including, Cook, Cowan, West, Mullin, Thomas, Briscoe, Ball, NTG and Taylor.

Survival of the fattest

Its really important that we as supporters truly understand the size of the job, as it's not just a question of getting promoted, as we ought to know after our previous two trips to the First Division, it's also about hanging on. For us it's also about moving the whole club forward on to a new plane entirely, as we have spent most of the last 20 seasons in the lower Divisions.

Looking at the sides in the Premiership, very few have even fallen that far ever in the last 40/50 seasons. By way of illustration, here is a table of clubs currently in the Premiership who have risen, with the year of escape from Division 2 (old Division 3).

Fulham	1999
Bolton	1993
Sunderland	1988
Middlesbrough	1987
Derby	1987
Charlton	1981
Blackburn	1979
Aston Villa	1972

The vast majority of the list are top two flight clubs who had a very brief dip down the tables. The only two risers from the last decade are Fulham and Bolton. Many on the list have yo-yoed to a degree.

So, most existing Prem. clubs who have been promoted in recent years are building from a much higher base level than Burnley. Looking at the above table it could take anything up to a decade before we are really ready to match our recent achievement of gaining promotion as well as consolidating at a higher level. Even then, it would be almost unprecedented for a club whose previous promotion was from the Second Division, unless Fulham can buck the trend, who are there because, like Blackburn, they have relatively unlimited financial constraints. Because the Premiership is not just about the survival of the fittest; it's also a haven for the fattest. Clubs like Spurs, Everton and Middlesbrough use their financial fat to eke out survival in the lean periods. I think nearly all the clubs on the list suffered a subsequent relegation before consolidating their top-flight status.

Always look on the bright side

For Burnley, mere survival in the First Division in itself is a laudable feat. These are the clubs who have entered the Division from below and remained, excluding the three promoted clubs. This does have a slightly false look as Man City, Bradford, and Watford, have all gone rapidly through the Division in recent years, but all have come straight back down again.

Seasons in Division One
Wolves	12
West Brom	8
Birmingham	7
Crewe, Grimsby, Stockport	4
PNE, Clarets, Gills	1

Indeed the measure of the Clarets' progress is that it took Wolves four seasons to finish in ninth place or above, and Albion's sixth place was their first top nine finish in all eight First Division seasons since returning. Interestingly, the Division is evenly split between sides coming down and those who have come up from the Second. Recent relegations have produced some really big fallers.

	Years in Prem	Drop year
Manchester City	1	2001
Coventry	33	2001
Bradford	2	2001
Sheffield Wednesday	10	2000
Watford	1	2000
Wimbledon	15	2000
Nottingham Forest	1	1999
Barnsley	1	1999
Crystal Palace	1	1999
Norwich	9	1995
Sheffield Utd	4	1994
Portsmouth	1	1988

Just take a quick look at those 12 sides who have come down from the top flight. Six of them lasted only one season, whilst Bradford managed two. So it really is tough at the top. The emphasis for Burnley now is just as much on maintenance as on progress. Long term, we need not just one good manager in the shape of Stan, but probably a succession. Note that Coventry, Wimbledon and Sheffield Wednesday are the only 'established' former Premiership sides slumming it in Division One. So as far as going up is concerned, we are relatively as well placed as anyone; staying up would be different.

Role models

The examples to follow are often quoted as Charlton and Ipswich, but Ipswich have never played in the Third (new Second) for over forty seasons and Charlton have been a top two flight club for 20 seasons. We have gone a long way very rapidly and my assertion is that it is not 'lacking ambition' to take a breather. That is not to say that, if an opportunity presents itself, that we should not take it, but the chances are that if we were fortunate enough to be elevated to another flight all the portents point to immediate demotion. Looking at the top table, even those clubs who have dragged their way out of the lower flights have done so with either massive potential support (Sunderland have 38,000 season ticket holders) or financial backing. The two exceptions being Charlton and Bolton, and the latter have merely yo-yoed.

Claret future

The reality is that for the next ten seasons we are much more likely to be watching First Division football than anything else, IF all goes well. Hopefully, with a sensible, forward looking Board in charge, we will be able to at least emulate clubs like Barnsley, Bolton, Portsmouth etc, and stabilise at this level, hopefully in the top end of the Division, ready for a pop each season at promotion. This is going to be the hard part for us supporters. The lack of tangible progress and maybe even a reverse of league placings may possibly halt the bandwagon effect. The expectations of history augmented by the recent meteoric rise from the bottom four of the Second Division (circa March 99) to 4^th in the First Division (November 2000) is a movement of two whole Divisions in 18 months.

BUT... as you get nearer the top the competition intensifies; hanging on to that top six spot was a hell of a lot harder than getting there, as there is the added pressure of further expectation. This is what performing at the top level is all about. The opposition gets tougher in terms of ability, physical and mental strength, allied with supporter expectations rising.

It is not that simple as some suggest to overnight take the blueprint from Charlton, Ipswich, West Ham or Leicester, copy it and hey presto, we're up. It might take one or two seasons more to actually work out which is the way forward for Burnley, because whatever the solution is, it will be unique to the present circumstances at Burnley and nowhere else. It will then take even longer to put the plan into action, and the chances are it may not succeed. Cries for a revamped youth system are about 5 years out of date for Burnley. Tranmere have a really good youth system, but they got relegated. Walsall don't have a particularly productive youth system, neither do Rotherham, but they got promoted. A youth system is great if it works. Since the Steven / Phelan era, Burnley's hasn't produced the goods, with Brass being the first BFC youngster to make over 100 league starts since Vince Overson.

Furthermore we have come a long way in the last few years because Stan has a plan that works, which does not rely on blooding youth players. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Indeed the way the transfer market is shaping up, it will be a waste of time producing players to sell on as it looks almost inevitable that the transfer system as we know it is about to collapse. Quite where the players will come from in future, who knows, but heavy investment in a youth system at the moment might not be the wisest move for a club like Burnley - not when Stan has only bought four of the current squad plus two purchases by previous managers. My guess is that only the really big clubs will be able to afford to run youth teams. and Preston have made a great success of picking up the crumbs from Man Utd's table. So the youngsters will all gravitate to the Centres of Excellence / Academies, in the same way that the top clubs vacuum up all the players they can. They already take on far more youths than they ever need and clubs like Burnley and Preston will pick up the rejects to add to their stock of previously acquired senior players and cheapo foreigners as they go increasingly global.

However, let's think positive and assume that we are going to hold our own for at least the short term future, and if that's all we do, let's not consider that as failure in any way. In the context of recent history, three top half finishes in Division One has to be considered a success relative to most other promoted clubs. In the long term it may also be considered as building a launch pad or platform for moving permanently to higher spheres.

As always, my message is trust Stan and his team, Barry and the Board and above all the players. They have more than amply demonstrated that they know what they are doing. Let's cease any senseless scapegoating and focus on the team and not individuals. After all, the squad is busting with capable Division One players. Above all, let's relax and enjoy another season of First Division football.

Igor Wowk
July 2001